A lot has changed in Canadian real estate over the past year, and even more has changed in just the last few weeks. If you’ve felt like the rules are moving faster than the market, you’re not wrong.

So for today’s issue, we’re simplifying it.

This is your plain-English update on the biggest recent changes affecting real estate in Canada, Ontario, and especially the GTA from the new HST relief on new homes, to federal mortgage rule changes, to the latest Bank of Canada rate decision, to how immigration policy is now feeding into housing demand.

Ontario’s 2026 Budget introduced a major proposed change: the province wants to temporarily expand HST relief on new homes. In simple terms, Ontario is proposing to remove the full 8% provincial portion of the HST for eligible new homes valued up to $1 million, which would mean up to $80,000 in provincial savings. That maximum relief would be maintained for homes valued between $1 million and $1.5 million.

Ontario is also framing this as a joint effort with Ottawa. If the federal government matches Ontario’s move, the combined relief could reach $130,000 on eligible new homes. Ontario’s backgrounder says the measure would generally apply to agreements signed from April 1, 2026 to March 31, 2027, with construction timing rules attached depending on whether it is a principal residence, owner-built home, or long-term rental property. Importantly, this is still described as a proposed, temporary measure that depends on federal regulatory changes.

Why this matters: this is aimed directly at the struggling new-home market, especially in Ontario, where affordability, weak pre-construction sales, and slower housing starts have become major problems.

Separate from Ontario’s latest move, the federal government already has a First-Time Home Buyers’ GST/HST Rebate in place. The CRA says eligible first-time buyers can get back up to $50,000 of the GST or federal part of the HST on a new home valued up to $1.5 million. For homes above $1 million, the rebate phases down, and there is no rebate at $1.5 million or above.

This federal rebate applies to builder agreements entered into on or after March 20, 2025 and before 2031, with construction substantially completed before 2036. So for first-time buyers looking at pre-construction or brand-new inventory, this is not a future promise—it is already part of the current rulebook.

What that means in practice: if Ontario’s proposal is finalized and matched federally, some buyers of new homes could stack meaningful tax relief. That would be a real shift for affordability at the entry and mid-market level.

Some of the most important changes didn’t happen this month—they’re already in force and still affecting affordability today. Since December 15, 2024, Canada has allowed 30-year amortizations for insured mortgages for all first-time homebuyers and all purchasers of new builds. On that same date, the insured mortgage cap increased from $1 million to $1.5 million.

Why this matters: these rules widened access, especially in high-cost markets like the GTA where many homes had drifted above the old insured-mortgage threshold. It also lowered monthly payments for some buyers by spreading them over a longer period. But it did not solve affordability on its own—it mainly improved financing flexibility.

On March 18, 2026, the Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25%, with the Bank Rate at 2.5% and the deposit rate at 2.20%. The Bank pointed to heightened uncertainty from the war in the Middle East and the risk of energy-price volatility.

For real estate, this means borrowing conditions are more stable than they were during the rate-hike phase, but we are not in a fast-cut environment either. Stable rates help confidence, but they do not automatically bring back rapid price growth—especially in regions where inventory is still elevated.

Housing-wise, this matters because temporary residents—especially students and workers—have been a major source of rental demand in recent years. Slower temporary resident growth could reduce some pressure in rental-heavy markets, especially around major urban centres. That does not mean demand disappears, but it does mean one of the strongest recent demand drivers is being moderated. Even the Bank of Canada has recently highlighted tighter immigration settings as one of the structural changes likely to affect housing demand and the broader economy.

If you only remember three things from today’s issue, make it these: