Dear Valued Subscriber

📌 In Today’s issue:

• Why second-ring markets are setting up well in 2025

• What you can buy (typical price points right now)

• The best Ontario cities/towns to target—and why

• A quick playbook to act with confidence

Why look beyond Toronto—now

• Lower entry prices = healthier cashflow math. Ontario’s average resale price in July 2025 was $822,356, versus the national $672,784; many secondary markets sit well below both. Translation: more doors per dollar, lower break-even rents. creastats.crea.ca

• Rents are still tight—even as asking growth cools. CMHC’s latest full read shows national purpose-built vacancy at 2.2% (2024)—up from 1.5% but still tighter than the 10-year norm. That’s supportive for landlords while giving renters a bit more choice. Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

• Transit is expanding connectivity. GO service upgrades are marching forward (Kitchener Line works; Bowmanville extension in Durham). Commutable distance is stretching—good news for value hunters. Metrolinx+1CityNews KitchenerINsauga | Ontario Local News Network

What you can buy today (typical averages)

Here are fresh board-reported averages so you can benchmark budgets:

• Waterloo Region: $735,082 (July 2025). Tech-and-uni demand, LRT, and GO improvements underpin long-run appeal.

• London–St. Thomas: $648,273 (July 2025). One of Ontario’s best affordability plays with solid population inflows.

• Niagara (St. Catharines–Niagara): $668,203 (July 2025 avg). Inventory is up, giving buyers leverage and choice.

• Barrie & Simcoe County: $831,428 (July 2025 avg). GO access + lake lifestyle; prices off y/y = better entry points.

• Hamilton–Burlington (medians, Q2 2025): detached $845,000; townhome $714,000—typically below 416 freeholds while still commutable.

Context on rents: 2025 has seen flat/softer asking rents in many Ontario markets after two very hot years, but three-bedroom purpose-built rents continue to edge up and vacancy remains low by history—favouring buy-and-hold investors who underwrite conservatively.

RealEdge Short List: Best Ontario Markets (outside Toronto)

1. Waterloo Region (Kitchener–Waterloo–Cambridge)

   • Price point: ~ $735K average (July 2025)

   • Why we like it: Tech hub, university-driven demand, LRT in place + ongoing GO upgrades—ideal for long-term rental absorption and resale liquidity.

   • Investor angle: Family-sized rentals near LRT/GO or university campuses offer consistent demand and turnover stability.

2. London–St. Thomas

   • Price point: ~ $648K average (July 2025)

   • Why we like it: Affordable entry point, steady inflows from GTA, and health/education anchor industries.

   • Investor angle: Target bungalow townhomes near employment nodes; strong holding potential without steep price competition.

3. Hamilton–Burlington

   • Price point: Detached ~ $845K; Towns ~ $714K (Q2 2025)

   • Why we like it: High commuter demand, regeneration, and still relatively lower than 416 pricing.

   • Investor angle: Duplex conversions and townhomes near transit or key redevelopment zones deliver both cash flow and growth.

4. Niagara (St. Catharines–Niagara Falls–Welland)

   • Price point: ~ $668K average (July 2025)

   • Why we like it: Rising demand, plentiful listings, and lifestyle migration dominating.

   • Investor angle: Target rentals near campuses or hospitals; leverage negotiation power and resale appeal.

5. Barrie & Simcoe County

   • Price point: ~ $831K average (July 2025)

   • Why we like it: More affordable than 416 cores and growing commuter infrastructure.

   • Investor angle: Family-oriented freeholds, especially in school districts, and legal duplexes yield upside.

6. Durham East Corridor (Oshawa, Courtice, Bowmanville)

   • Price point: ~ $770K average (March 2025)

   • Why we like it: Oshawa’s price point is WELL below 905 and 416 averages. Vacancy remains tight (3.6%), and rental rates are solid ($1,698 average). Transit potential is massive—with Bowmanville GO extension bringing two new Oshawa stations plus shifting commute patterns.

   • Investor angle: Focus on family-sized rentals near new GO stations and campuses for strong rent stability. North Oshawa offers tighter vacancy; central/south offers renovation opportunities.

Why Oshawa deserves top billing now:

• Lower buy-in: At ~$770K average, Oshawa is significantly more accessible for investors priced out of the 416/905 core.

• Rental strength: With a vacancy of just 3.6% and growing student and commuter demand, rents are steady and reliable.

• Transit momentum: The Bowmanville GO extension is progressing—locking in transit access based on today’s price is a rare, compoundable play.

• Market balance: Listings are up this spring, giving smart buyers negotiating leverage in a stabilizing market.

The RealEdge playbook (how to move now)

• Underwrite to today, not tomorrow. Use current rents and a 0–1% annual rent growth assumption; stress-test at +75–100 bps on financing. Pair that with realistic maintenance/insurance line items. (Rents have cooled from 2023 peaks; vacancy is still tight but rising modestly.)

• Hunt value in “family-sized” inventory. 3-bed purpose-built rents are the stickiest; end-user demand also cushions exit values.

• Prioritize transit + jobs. Properties inside 15–20 minutes of GO/LRT or major employment nodes enjoy faster lease-ups and better resale liquidity.

• Negotiate—really. Several boards are reporting elevated listings and longer DOM; come prepared with firm financing + clean conditions where prudent. (See Niagara’s historic July new-listing surge keeping it in buyer territory.)

Bottom line

If Toronto blue-chip assets still feel out of reach, Ontario’s second-ring markets offer a compelling blend of lower buy-in, resilient rental demand, and improving connectivity. Start with Oshawa, Waterloo Region, London–St. Thomas, Hamilton–Burlington, Niagara, and Barrie/Simcoe—then get hyper-local about schools, transit, and employment nodes.

Want a 10-minute micro-brief on any of these markets (with comps and rent grids)? Book a quick strategy

See you next week