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Navigating Trade Tensions and Market Shifts in Canadian Real Estate

Dear Valued Subscriber

As global trade tensions rise and domestic economic policies adjust in response, the Canadian real estate market is shifting in real-time. Whether you’re a buyer, seller, or investor, it’s essential to understand how these changes may affect your real estate decisions.

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📌 In Today’s Newsletter:
  • Current economic and policy conditions

  • How trade tensions are shaping market behavior

  • Regional opportunities and sector-specific strategies

  • How our team at Manasseh Homes can help you navigate it all

📊 Current Economic Climate: Pressure Meets Opportunity

Tariffs on key Canadian exports—especially lumber and manufactured goods—have put pressure on construction costs and commercial investment. Meanwhile, the Bank of Canada’s recent rate cut to 3% is providing some relief by lowering borrowing costs and stimulating domestic activity.

Key Market Impacts:

  • Construction Costs: Lumber tariffs have driven an ~8% year-over-year increase in material expenses, slowing new builds—especially in Ontario and B.C.

  • Investor Caution: Export-heavy provinces like Alberta are seeing cooler activity in industrial real estate due to supply chain disruptions.

  • Urban vs. Rural Divide: Cities like Toronto, Vancouver, and Ottawa remain resilient. Meanwhile, rural and manufacturing-driven regions face headwinds.

🏘️ Market Response to Trade Pressures

Rooftops

The industry is adapting fast. Here's how:

  • Mixed-Use Developments on the Rise
    Developers and investors are leaning into residential-commercial hybrids to balance risk across sectors.

  • Rental Demand is Surging
    National rental vacancy rates have dropped to 1.8%, the lowest in 15 years, as more would-be buyers sit tight amid economic uncertainty.

  • Government Incentives Are Kicking In
    New federal rebates for energy-efficient upgrades are helping homeowners offset rising renovation and material costs.

📍 Regional Market Highlights

Region

Trend

What to Watch

Ontario

Strong urban demand, resilient condo sales

Focus on transit-accessible condos

Alberta

Industrial real estate up 12% YoY

Target distribution and warehouse assets

British Columbia

Luxury market softening (-4% Q1 2025)

Use seller incentives to negotiate

Quebec

Trade-hit manufacturing towns slowing

Invest in rental income properties

🔑 Strategic Advice for Buyers, Sellers, and Investors

For Buyers:

  • Lock in fixed-rate mortgages now while interest rates are favorable.

  • Explore tariff-resilient cities like Ottawa, where tech and public sector employment remain stable.

For Sellers:

  • Highlight energy-efficient upgrades and improvements—federal rebates are a strong selling point.

  • In markets with rising inventory (e.g., Atlantic Canada), price competitively and market aggressively.

For Investors:

  • Diversify into multi-family residential units in growing cities like Calgary and Halifax.

  • Watch for port-adjacent commercial spaces—logistics and warehousing may rebound faster than other sectors.

🤝 How Manasseh Homes Can Help You Stay Ahead

At Manasseh Homes, we understand how global and national shifts impact your local real estate decisions. We provide:

  • Custom neighborhood analysis based on trade and policy exposure

  • Renovation ROI assessments factoring in tariff-inflated construction costs

  • Smart portfolio diversification strategies for risk-managed growth

Whether you’re actively looking or simply planning your next move, we’re here to help you navigate what’s next—confidently and strategically.

👉 Book your strategy session today at cal.com/manassehhomes

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See you next week