Dear Valued Subscriber

📌 In today’s issue, you’ll get:

• A timeline of the key moves that shaped the market

• Where the numbers sit right now (Canada + GTA)

• Why supply is rising in some places and falling in others

• What changed since spring (and what that means for fall)

• Actionable plays for buyers, sellers, and investors

📊 How we got here (the last 12 months in 12 lines)

• Rates fell—then paused. The Bank of Canada cut from 5.00% in mid-2024 to 2.75% by March 12, 2025, and has held there through summer. Lower policy rates eased variable borrowing costs and stabilized sentiment. Reuters

• Mortgage rules reset. Ottawa rolled out the “boldest mortgage reforms in decades”: 30-year amortizations for first-time buyers on new builds (Aug 1, 2024), then expanded to all first-time buyers (Dec 15, 2024), and lifted the insured mortgage cap to $1.5M. Canada.ca

• Immigration settings evolved. A national study-permit cap and new temporary-resident planning dampen some near-term rental demand pressure (especially around campuses), but underlying population growth remains elevated by historical standards. Canada.ca

• Construction surprised to the upside—outside Ontario. Starts have stayed historically strong nationally in 2025, even as Ontario (especially the GTA) cooled sharply. Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

• Confidence took a mid-year hit, then stabilized. Trade-policy uncertainty cooled activity this spring; major forecasters now see a gradual recovery resuming into late-2025/early-2026. RBC

🏘️ Where the numbers sit right now

Canada (July 2025):

• Average sale price: $672,784, up 0.6% year-over-year.

• Sales: up 3.8% month-over-month, continuing a multi-month climb.

• Inflation: 1.7% in July—still inside the BoC’s target band, giving policymakers room to hold. Bank of CanadaTD EconomicsNerdWallet

New supply pipeline:

• Housing starts trend: 263,088 units (6-month avg) in July; SAAR 294,085 (+4% m/m). Momentum is concentrated in the Prairies and Québec; Toronto starts fell year-over-year. Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Rental backdrop (latest full read):

• Vacancy: 2.2% for purpose-built rentals in 2024 (still tight).

• Turnover rent gap: rents on turned-over units rose 23.5%. Tightness persisted in major centres despite more completions.

GTA snapshot (July 2025):

• Average price: $1,051,719 (-5.5% y/y); composite HPI -5.4% y/y.

• Listings remain elevated versus sales, keeping leverage with buyers in many segments (notably condos). trreb.ca

What borrowers see today:

• Typical 5-yr fixed: ~4.0–4.8% (best insured quotes near ~4.0%; big-bank discounts mid-4s).

• Variable: often ~3.9–4.2% depending on lender/borrower profile. (Always subject to qualification.) Ratehub.caNerdWallet

What changed since spring & why it matters for fall

• Rates steadied, inflation cooled. The BoC held at 2.75% through July as CPI slid to 1.7%—supportive for affordability, even if fixed rates wobble with bond yields. ReutersNerdWallet

• Sales firmed nationally, but Ontario lagged. CREA’s July tally shows prices essentially flat year-on-year and sales trending up; Ontario and B.C. remain under more pressure than the Prairies/Québec/Atlantic. Bank of Canada

• Starts resilience masks an Ontario slump. National construction stayed brisk; Ontario’s sharp slowdown (especially pre-construction condos) threatens 2026–27 completions if not reversed. RBC

Our read: Expect a more balanced fall market nationally, with buyer’s-market pockets in the GTA/Lower Mainland and tighter conditions across Alberta, Saskatchewan, and parts of Québec/Atlantic. Price paths will likely diverge: flat-to-down in high-inventory regions; modest gains where supply is constrained. RBC

Plays for the next 60–90 days

If you’re buying (GTA focus):

• Pre-approval + rate hold before the fall rush—then shop broadly and negotiate; condo inventory has created value pockets.

• First-time buyer? Explore the 30-year amortization option (insured) and the higher $1.5M cap if you qualify—powerful levers in high-cost markets. Canada.ca

If you’re selling:

• Price to the last 30–60 days, not last year. In soft-to-balanced segments, correct pricing + presentation beats “test the market” every time.

• Lean into energy-efficiency + maintenance records. Buyers are rate- and cost-sensitive; transparency shortens days-on-market.

If you’re investing:

• Follow the supply. Alberta/Saskatchewan and parts of Atlantic/Québec have strong rental absorption; cap rates still pencil given tight vacancy.

• Mind the pipeline in Ontario. Fewer new launches today can support existing rental assets—but also foreshadows tighter supply again once demand re-accelerates. RBC

🔑 The bottom line

For Buyers:

• Lock in fixed-rate mortgages now while interest rates are favorable.

• Explore tariff-resilient cities like Ottawa, where tech and public sector employment remain stable.

For Sellers:

• Highlight energy-efficient upgrades and improvements—federal rebates are a strong selling point.

• In markets with rising inventory (e.g., Atlantic Canada), price competitively and market aggressively.

For Investors:

• Diversify into multi-family residential units in growing cities like Calgary and Halifax.

• Watch for port-adjacent commercial spaces—logistics and warehousing may rebound faster than other sectors.

🤝 How We Can Help You Stay Ahead

Want a GTA/Durham micro-read on your street or building? Reply to this email with a postal code and property type—we’ll send a 1-page RealEdge brief.

👉 Book your strategy session today

See you next Monday,
The RealEdge Team