Hellooo

📌 In Today’s issue:

• How we define market balance (and what metrics to watch)

• Snapshot and verdict for each region: Toronto, Vancouver, Durham

• What’s driving the differences (economics, inventory, demand)

• What it means for you (buyers, sellers, investors)

• RealEdge takeaways and next-step actions
  

Want a 10-minute micro-brief on any of these markets (with comps and rent grids)? Book a quick strategy

Defining the market state: Buyer, Seller, Balanced

• A common benchmark: the sales-to-new-listings ratio (SNLR). If > 60% → seller’s market (tight supply, less choice); if < 40% → buyer’s market (more choice, more negotiating power); around 40%-60% → balanced.

• Another metric: months of inventory. Nationally, the long-term average is about 5 months. Below ~3.6 months suggests a seller’s market, above ~6.4 months suggests buyer’s market.

• Our focus is on recent data for inventory, new listings, sales volumes, and price trends to evaluate each region.

Regional Snapshots & Verdicts

GTA (Greater Toronto Area / Toronto City)

Data snapshot:

• According to recent figures, Toronto City's SNLR in September 2025 was ~29% (meaning sales were just 29% of new listings) – well below 40%, indicating strong buyer leverage.

• One summary: “Listings outpace demand in Toronto, giving buyers an edge” – listing pool among the largest in years.

• In the broader GTA: June 2025 had 6,243 home sales (down ~2.4% y/y) with new listings up ~7.7%. Average selling price ~$1.101 m, down ~5.4% y/y.

Verdict: For now, the GTA is leaning toward a buyer’s market. Supply is elevated, demand is softer, and buyers have more negotiating power.

Greater Vancouver

Data snapshot:

• In June 2025, GVR reported 2,181 sales (down ~9.8% y/y) and sales volume ~25.8% below 10-yr seasonal average. ([turn0search0])

• Active listings and new inventory are high; one report showed new listings up ~46% in Jan 2025 vs Jan 2024. ([turn0search18])

• Some commentary: “Home prices in Vancouver … average listings above 10-year seasonal average.” ([turn0search30])

Verdict: Vancouver is also more of a buyer’s market at present, especially in segments where supply is abundant and price growth flat or negative.

Durham Region

Data snapshot:

• In Q1 2025, new listings were up ~23% y/y compared to Q1 2024. Sales were down.

• For June 2025, a very low SNLR (~31% in one sub-market) was noted—well into buyer’s territory.

• Outlook: A REMAX blog said that Durham is transitioning toward a balanced market, with ample listings and moderate demand.

Verdict: Durham Region is closer to a balanced market, but leaning toward buyer’s conditions given current supply and softening demand.

What’s driving the differences

• Affordability & pricing levels: Toronto’s high home prices make affordability a chronic challenge, constraining demand more than in some smaller or slower-growth markets.

• Supply build-up: Vancouver and Durham show increased listings/new builds/choice, shifting power toward buyers.

• Regional demand drivers: Durham benefits from commuter demand, some affordability edge; Vancouver sees foreign/wealth flows but also high price bases; Toronto remains the economic hub but faces more structural headwinds.

• Interest rate environment & macro uncertainty: Nationally higher rates, trade/geo-political risks, renewal cost pressures are cooling demand, especially in larger markets.

What this means for you

If you’re a Buyer:

• In Toronto and Vancouver: You have more choice and negotiating leverage—look for incentives, slower-than-expected sale cycles, and do thorough due diligence.

• In Durham (balanced): Conditions are more neutral: act when the deal fits, but expect less deep discounts.

• Across all: With buyers gaining power, prioritize property condition, location, and value — the competition is less heated, so losing the “help” of a bidding war means you must rely more on fundamentals.

If you’re a Seller:

• In buyer-leaning markets (Toronto/Vancouver): Pricing aggressively matters more than ever. Don’t assume the “going up” momentum will carry you—buyers are more cautious.

• In Durham: You’re closer to equilibrium. A good property in a good location still sells well—focus on presentation, timing, and marketing.

• In all markets: Highlight features that are increasingly valued (energy efficiency, transit access, strong rental potential if investment property) to stand out.

If you’re an Investor:

• Buyer-heavy conditions are favourable for entry: negotiating room, less competition, more value-add potential.

• But the flip side: slower price appreciation possibility in the near term. You’ll want stronger rental fundamentals, lower leverage, and properties where value can be unlocked (e.g., renovations, under-market rents).

• Monitor Durham as an “early balanced” market with potential upside if demand strengthens or supply tightens.

RealEdge Takeaways & What to Watch Next

• Toronto: Buyer’s market regime now. If you’re buying good timing for leverage. If selling expect more realistic pricing and longer turns.

• Vancouver: Also leaning buyer’s side, particularly outside ultra-premium or ultra-tight supply niches.

• Durham Region: Balanced but shifting. Still some seller strength in specific pockets, yet overall more buyer friendly than in peak years.

• Watch key metrics closely: SNLR (sales/new listings) and months of inventory. Changes here will signal when conditions shift.

• Upcoming catalysts: Interest rate moves, immigration/supply policy shifts, mortgage-renewal payment pressure. These may nudge markets toward either tightening or further easing of choice.

Want a 10-minute micro-brief on any of these markets (with comps and rent grids)? Book a quick strategy

See you next week